Tim Wakefield was left off the roster.  I didn’t quite hear all the reasons.  I think this was their reasoning:

1) Avoid knuckleballs in thin air.  They won’t move as much.  The knuckleball depends upon air friction against the seam of the ball to change its direction, as it rotates slowly, about 1 to 2 turns as it moves towards the plate.  Thinner air means less friction, meaning less movement.

2) Since Beckett and Schilling are your definite top-2 starters, they go 2 games each.  Beckett gets games 1 and 5.  Schilling can go 2 and 6 or 3 and 7.  That leaves Matsuzaka or Wakefield pitching game 4 only, and the other one pitching the pair that Schilling doesn’t pitch.

The only solution that didn’t have Wakefield in Coors Field is games 2 and 6 for Wakefield, with Dice-K in game 4. 

3) Wakefield was well enough to start game 2, but wouldn’t be able to recover in time to start game 6. 

Thus, the only options were to have Wakefield pitch long out of the bullpen, or leave him off the roster.  Since it would take a long time for Wakefield to warm up his hurting shoulder, they didn’t want him to be out of the bullpen, so they left him off the roster.

That allowed Kyle Snyder onto the roster.  What a thrill it must be for a guy who was released by the lowly Kansas City Royals last year.  How low can that feel? 

If the Sox hadn’t had such a crazy epidemic of pitching injuries last year, he might be struggling in the minors somewhere, but he got a chance to prove himself in a pressure environment, and did well enough to hang around. 

Off the scrap heap, and into the World Series, in just over a year.  You go, Mr. Snyder!

What about Gagne?

Many people complained that Julian Tavarez should have been on the roster instead of Eric Gagne.

While I still think that will be one of the worst trades in Red Sox history, I do believe the Red Sox made the right decision by having Gagne on the roster.  I just think he’s more likely to give them good performances.

Gagne’s performance has little to do with my opinion that it was a bad trade.  If Gagne had pitched perfectly over the last 3 months, it still was a bad trade, because he wouldn’t be returning to Boston next year, so it amounts to tossing aside a highly promising young starting pitcher and a top outfielder prospect for a 3 month rental of a reliever we did not need. 

The Red Sox bullpen was fine!  Yes, they were worried about Papelbon’s innings, and Okajima’s innings.  They rested both guys a lot, and got nothing from Gagne, and things fell apart somewhat, but they STILL had enough of a lead and enough good players elsewhere to get the best record in baseball, and make it to the World Series.   They didn’t need him, even if he’d been at his best.  They threw away 2 superb prospects.  What a waste.

Still, Gagne has shown signs of locating his pitches better lately, and getting hitters to take weak swings.  He’s looking more like his old self.  For the moment, he’s more likely to give you what you need in a World Series.  This guy is used to pitching in high-pressure situations.  Tavarez has always done well as a starter and poorly as a reliever.  Gagne is the right choice. 

Still, I’d rather have Kason Gabbard on my team next year than Gagne on my World Series roster this year!

Who knows?  Maybe Gagne will accept a setup role in order to have a chance to make a meaningful contribution to a winning team?  Maybe he will choose to sign with the Red Sox for another 3 years, and will return to his old, dominant self?  Unlikely, but if it does happen, it might make the trade halfway worth it.

1903, 1912, 1915, 1916, 1918,

1946, 1967, 1975, 1986,

2004

and now, 2007.

The first 5 were years the Red Sox won the World Series. 

The next 4 were years the Red Sox lost the World Series (in 7 games each time!).

The last one was (finally) another win.

The Red Sox are 6-4 in World Series.  In the last 5 World Series, they’ve won 16 games and lost 16 games, but won only 1 of those 5. 

There was no World Series in 1904 or 1994, so the Red Sox won the 1st, 9th, 12th, 13th, 15th and 100th.  Yes, 2004 was the 100th World Series.

The Red Sox made it, but lost in the 43rd, 64th, 72nd and 83rd.

This year is the 103rd. 

So who’ll win?

The Colorado Rockies have only been around since the early 90s, and have only made the playoffs once.  They’ve never been in the World Series.  This will be their first time there.  The entire Midwest must be thrilled.

It’s good to see a team like the Rockies make it. 

Of course, I’m cheering for the Sox, but it wouldn’t be so bad to see the Rockies win.  Either way, it’s a good story to me.  I guess that’s why I’m not quite as emotionally into this World Series as the last one.  That, and the fact that it’s been only 3 years since the last Red Sox win, instead of 86. 

So we have a game 7 after all.

Originally I predicted Sox in 7.

Earlier today I predicted Indians in 7.

What do I feel after seeing this game? 

I’m back to being uncertain.

Daisuke Matsusaka had his usual "implosion inning" after having pitched well for the first few innings in Game 3.  Still, the final score was only 4-2, thanks to a good effort from the bullpen to keep it close.  Westbrook was just better, as he threw a lot of first pitch strikes, and the Sox were patient, taking too many of them and falling behind in the count. 

What adjustments will be made?

Will the Sox swing at those first pitch strikes in the middle of the zone?  Will they get hits off of them?  Will that play into Westbrook’s hands?  Will he get all the double-plays he enjoyed last time? 

After scoring so much in the last 2 games, I think the Red Sox are more confident.  I think they’ll swing early in the first inning, to try to get Westbrook to adjust by starting to nibble with his first pitches, then they can go back to their regular game plan.  The key will be whether the Sox get hits off those first pitch strikes.

Another key is the venue.  Game 3 was in Cleveland.  When Daisuke gave up runs, he didn’t have the crowd to support him and lift him up emotionally.  Game 7 is in Fenway.  The crowd will be on his side all the way.  Schilling said tonight that the home crowd lifted his spirits many times and allowed him to fight through the rough innings.  Will it work for Matsusaka, too?

Ellsbury hit the ball well in replacing Crisp.  He was robbed of a triple by Grady Sizemore, so he only had 1 hit, driving in a run and later scoring, but he definitely looked like he had more offensive spark and confidence than Coco Crisp.  Then again, the first Indians batter of the 7th inning hit a fly ball that he could have caught by just putting his back up against the wall and reaching up, but Ellsbury thought he was out of room and had to jump.  He missed the catch.  That led to a run, but it was too little, too late for Cleveland.  Still, that’s a play that Crisp probably makes.  Generally, though, Ellsbury is almost as good defensively as Crisp, and that’s extremely good. 

Will Ellsbury start again in Center?  It sounds like it.  Why mess with a lineup that produced 12 runs?  If the Red Sox make it to the World Series, I’d expect Crisp to start again in game 1, or at least against left-handed starters.  The mental break might do him enough good that he’ll come in and produce.

This game will be difficult to predict.  Cleveland had to use their bullpen longer than expected in this game, but in a game 7, all the previous starters are available, except the starters of game 6.  That gives both teams plenty of depth, but the Red Sox have the advantage, only needing 2 innings from the bullpen, and having those go relatively quickly, to Lopez and Gagne, who had struggled.  Those are big, confidence-building outings for those 2 pitchers, and could help the Red Sox in game 7 if the game goes to extra innings.  Cleveland will be in trouble if their starter is out early and it goes to extra innings, as their bullpen is a little more depleted. 

But barring that scenario, both teams should be able to get 4 or 5 innings of excellent relief from their game 4 and 5 starters, and from the best of their bullpen, so if either team is ahead in the 5th and their starter starts to struggle, expect a quick hook from their manager.

Given all that, and that Daisuke has often pitched 4 good innings, then had trouble in the 5th, I’d expect the Red Sox to have the upper hand in this game.  Most likely, the crowd support, and Daisuke’s preparation, will calm him and allow him to pitch better than last time.  Ortiz said that Daisuke was watching film of the last game all evening.  If Daisuke starts to melt down anyway, the bullpen will be able to go long.

Forecast:

The key will be an early lead for both teams.  If the game is tied after 4 innings, Cleveland probably has the advantage, and Daisuke keeping Cleveland from scoring in the 5th inning would be huge, and would shift the advantage back to Boston. 

If Boston is ahead after 4, they’re in the driver’s seat, as they would have room to let Daisuke pitch a while in the 5th before taking him out if he gets into trouble. 

If either team is up by 2 runs or more after 4 innings, that team wins.  Otherwise, the game comes down to whether Daisuke can pitch a scoreless 5th inning. 

So I’m not picking a winner, I’m just telling you what conditions to look for.  The early innings are key. 

Current Conditions:

Coming home to Fenway Park, after a solid win in Cleveland. 

The Red Sox have to be feeling good in this game.

Schilling has experience coming up big in a game 6 after having pitched poorly earlier.  He’ll find a way to get things done tonight. 

The Red Sox offense should get a boost with Ellsbury hitting 8th, and just from being back home in a familiar and friendly hitter’s park. 

Word on the street is that the Sox fans in and around Fenway are already showing a lot more "buzz" and energy than in the first 2 games.  Perhaps they were overconfident in the first 2 games, and now they realize they have to respect the Indians.  It’s do or die.  They’re really into this game, because there is real concern in their minds that the Sox might not win the series.  The chance of losing seems more real to them than it did in the first 2 games, so they’re bringing more support, and feeling more real playoff suspense.

Forecast:

The Red Sox win game 6, but it will be an exciting, suspense-filled game.

I’m not as confident about game 7.  They’ll probably lose that game.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  First things first.  Take care of game 6.

If they do get to a game 7, the good news is that all pitchers will be available except Schilling. Wakefield could come in to relieve for a few innings, as could Lester.   Beckett could even throw an inning or 2, given that it would be his normal day to "throw on the side". 

Current Conditions:

There’s been a lot of pressure from the fan-base and media in Boston to start Josh Beckett on 3 days rest instead of Tim Wakefield for game 4, now that the Sox are down 2 games to 1.

Terry Francona and all the Red Sox staff have stuck by their original plan to have Wakefield start.

I think this will actually be a psychological lift for the team.  It certainly is for Wakefield and Mirabelli.
I think the team will respond by feeling the urgency to prove their manager right, and they’ll go out and score a bunch of runs.

I also heard someone on the radio saying Ellsbury should start in place of Coco Crisp, because he’ll help the offense.  My argument to that is two-fold.  Firstly, the offense hasn’t been a problem in the playoffs, except in the very last game.  Secondly, Coco Crisp played gold-glove caliber defense all year in a key position, and is more familiar with The Jake’s outfield than any other Red Sox outfielder (I suppose you could argue that Manny played more there, but that was a long time ago), since Crisp played there as his home park as recently as 2 years ago (2005). 

Crisp’s defense will be better than Ellsbury’s.  Also, Ellsbury is a rookie, and likely to get the typical rookie "tightening-up" that happens in the playoffs.  It’s happening to Pedroia.  You can’t guarantee that Ellsbury will do any better offensively than Crisp has. 

It’s not worth the bad message it sends and the bad vibe it would generate if Ellsbury started in place of Crisp.

Another argument was made that Kielty should start in place of Drew because he has good numbers against Byrd, while Drew is only something like 2 for 10 against him.  That might happen, but is not likely because Kielty also has good numbers against Sabathia, who’ll pitch the next game.

Forecast:

It should be a good matchup of veteran starters.   It’s harder to predict how these starters will do, especially in Wakefield’s case, since he’s been off for so long.   I think the Sox offense will kick back into gear, and Wakefield’s knuckleball might be just the thing in the playoffs to throw off a young team that’s feeling confident and might have trouble relaxing enough to wait on the knuckleball.  Aggressive swingers fare poorly against the knuckleball.

I think this will be a high scoring game, with the Red Sox getting the advantage.  Figure 7-5, Boston.

Current Conditions:

Trot Nixon does it again.  He comes up with big hits in big games.  He might be injured every year and missing lots of regular season games, but when he’s able to play and a big game is on the line, he seems to come up big most of the time. 

That’s why I listed him as one of Cleveland’s big advantages, and as the one person who scares me in this series (see my post from before game 1).

This next game is incredibly difficult to predict.  There are too many variables.  It could be a blowout for either team, or another close game. 

No prediction for game 3! 

Just sit back and enjoy. 

Factors to watch:  will Daisuke come up big, or wilt under the pressure?  Will he be able to avoid the high pitch count that he had against the Angels, despite the fact that he’s playing a more patient offense?

Will the Red Sox offense do even better as they get past Cleveland’s 2 dominant starters, or will that somehow take their edge off?  Will being in Cleveland take the spark out of their offense? 

Will the 6am arrival in Cleveland carry-over? 

Well, if I multiplied the scores by 3, I would have been about right!

Sometimes, I’m way off.  Baseball is impossible to predict every time.

At least I was off in a way that made me smile!

It wasn’t so much wind-blowing that raised the scores, it was the Red Sox patience at the plate, Sabathia’s control issues, and Papi and Manny going 10 for 10 in on base percentage.   Combined they were 4 for 4 with 5 walks and one hit batter.  No homers, but they did plenty of damage.  They’re both so locked in right now, it’s hard to imagine even Carmona slowing them down too much.

With Manny and Papi doing so well, this might not be as difficult of a series as I thought.  We’ll find out tonight if it was Sabathia falling apart or just Manny and Papi doing their thing, when we see how Carmona does.

Forecast:

Schilling will come up big again.  With all the rest, and his success in the ALDS, there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again.

This game should be lower scoring than last night.   It’ll be cold!

Still, with the Sox offense so confident, and the Sox playing so well in all phases of the game, and the bullpen rested and ready, it’s hard to believe Cleveland will mount much of an offensive attack, and certainly not as much as the Sox will. 

Probably a 5-2 result, Red Sox.

One thing I forgot in my forecast for game 1.   The weather! 

It will be cold and raw, which will favor the pitchers. 

At the same time, there will be a strong wind blowing out toward right field, which will favor left-handed hitters, especially those that lift the ball high in the air, like, say, Big Papi!

Of course, Sabathia is tougher on lefties, which is why Kielty is starting in place of J.D. Drew.

The hitters have to be able to at least get the ball up in the air before the wind will help with it.

So, my prediction of 3-1 might be a bit low, if hitters are able to get the ball in the air for some wind-blown extra-base hits.

Current Conditions:

A rainy week in Boston is due to clear up just in time for the ALCS to begin tonight.  In a way, it’s good they had such a big gap scheduled, because there would likely have been rain delays or postponements had the ALCS been due to start Wed or Thurs. 

Both teams have had plenty of time to study each other, and when they finish their studying, they might feel like they were looking in the mirror.  The 2 teams are very similar.  Not only were they tied for the best record in baseball, but they both have #1 starters with almost identical stats and who are considered the top 2 contenders for the Cy Young award, #2 starters who are currently dominating, very good #3 starters, and quality, mature-but-inconsistent #4 starters. 

They have 2 of the best bullpens in the league.  They both have good, deep offenses.  They’re even similar in personnel.  Many Red Sox are former Indians.  Pitching Coach John Farrell was with Cleveland last year, and was responsible for player development throughout their organization for the last several years, so he has been personnally responsible for much of their current success.  Coco Crisp started his career in Cleveland; most of his career so far was there.   Francona and Farrell both played together there in 1988.  Tavarez pitched there.  Several veterans on the Sox spent a year or two there at some point in their career. 

Then of course, there’s Manny Ramirez, who spent the first half of his career there. 

What are the differences?  The biggest one is payroll.  The Red Sox spend more than twice as much as the Indians.  Kudos to the Indians for doing just as well with less money. 

So how to pick a winner in this series?  It’s difficult.  I think the series will go to 7 games.  Either team could win. 

Who gets the edge?  The Red Sox have small edges in several important areas that I can see:

1. Fielding.  Cleveland had 93 errors (Good), while Boston had 81 errors (Great).  Even adjusting for the fact that Cleveland had 4% more total chances, there’s still a difference that gives a slight edge to Boston.
2. Closer.   This one is actually a big advantage.  Borowski: 5.07 ERA, 85% save rate, 1.43 WHIP.  Papelbon: 1.85 ERA, 92.5% save rate, 0.78 WHIP!
3. Veterans.  The Red Sox have a lot of guys with playoff experience and big game experience.
4. Home field advantage  -  ‘Nuf Said.
5. Manny and Papi  -  When these teams met earlier in the year and traded 1-0 victories (with Sabathia and Carmona), Manny and Papi were both in hitting funks.  In the last 2 weeks, they’ve both been locked in, and hitting better than at any time this season.  Cleveland has a good, balanced offense, with their top 7 in at bats all between .266 and .301, with 6 of them between 18 and 25 homers (5 over 20) which compares well to the REST of the Red Sox lineup, but they have nothing to compare to Papi and Manny when they’re hot.

Cleveland has slight advantages in these areas:

1. Starting Pitching is slightly better
2. Middle Relief is slightly better.
3. Trot Nixon – the fact that this guy is a huge clutch player with a long history of coming up big off great pitching in key situations in Fenway Park… just… scares… me!

Overall, the advantage goes to Boston. 

Right now, the Red Sox can say for the first time all year that they’re fully healthy with both Manny and Papi hitting well.  The Red Sox lost a lot of 1-run games mid-season when those 2 hitters were slumping.  If they’d had years resembling their previous 2 years, the Red Sox would have won over 100 games, easily. 

Cleveland has been playing consistently well all year.  They played a little bit better down the stretch, but mostly, they’ve been consistent.

While I give kudos to Cleveland for being consistent, and in many ways that’s more impressive, it seems like the Red Sox have a higher gear they can get to, and they’re finally getting to it right now.

I expect the Red Sox to win this series in 7 games.  They’re just too balanced.  Starters, relievers, defense, power hitters, on-base hitters, speed, baserunning. 

Speed and baserunning!  I forgot to mention.  Believe it or not, the Red Sox have the advantage there!

The Red Sox stole 96 bases and were caught 24 times, for an 80% success rate.
The Indians stole 72 bases and were caught a ******** 41 times, for a 63.7% success rate.

Against the dominant starters, small-ball might be the key to winning, and the Sox can play that game better.

Forecast:

For Game 1, looking at Beckett vs Sabathia:
Sabathia hasn’t pitched in Fenway this year.  His first playoff start, vs. the Yankees, was OK, but not great, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings with a small strike zone and uncharacteristically high number of walks.
Beckett had a 4.17 ERA in Fenway.  His first playoff start, vs. the Angels, was dominant, with a complete game 4 hit shutout.

I think Sabathia will pitch better than his first playoff game, and go deeper.  He’ll probably finish about 7 innings and give up 2 runs.
Beckett should go about the same, giving up about 1 run. 

Final score: 3-1 Red Sox.

Unless Trot Nixon once again comes up late in the game with a chance to tie or win it.  Then all bets are off. 

I’m having some second thoughts about my prediction that the Red Sox will lose today.  I have to make it more "conditional".  I still think it’s more likely that they’ll lose than that they’ll win, because the Angels should perform better at home, but there are some big variables which make it difficult to predict today’s game:

How will Schilling respond to having an extra week of rest between starts?

Will he feel to strong and overthrow?  Will he lose control?  Will he remember playoff "mode" and snap back into the winning big-game pitcher of the past? 

Also, Weaver is a good pitcher, but lately the Red Sox have hit him well.  Will we see him get hit hard, or will being in Anaheim be enough for him to forget the past and pitch very well?

Adjusted Forecast:

I think we might see Jacoby Ellsbury play a few innings today.  Just a hunch.

I think Schilling will be rusty.  If he doesn’t walk anyone and keeps the Angels to 2 runs or less after 3 innings, the Red Sox will probably win.  A lot depends on those first 2 or 3 innings.  He’s likely to shake off the rust after that, and if he gains confidence from those first 3 innings, he’ll probably go for 7 good innings.

If he gives up 3 or more in the first 3, the Red Sox lose.